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MEC: Ongoing Research
Research relevant to the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment is ongoing in a number of sectors. The information below provides current information, contacts and website information about this research.  Sector: HEALTH Contact Person: Patrick Kinney Summary: The New York Climate & Health Project (NYCHP) has developed and applied a modeling framework to assess potential future public health impacts of climate and land-use changes in the New York metropolitan region. Projections of regional climate and air quality have been assessed under alternative scenarios of global climate change and regional land-use change. The NYCHP team has linked a diverse set of models and measurements to address current and future global climate, land use, regional climate, air quality, and human health. The following types of models have been used in the project: Global Climate Model (GISS GCM), Regional Climate Model (GISS-MM5), Land-Use Model (SLEUTH) and Regional Ozone Model (CMAQ). Applications: Public health impacts were estimated using a risk assessment framework, with and without assumptions of population growth. Health impacts were assessed for ozone air quality and ambient temperatures. Future changes in these two environmental stressors as simulated by the NYCHP model system were compared relative to conditions in the 1990s across the region, as taken from meteorological observations at the GCM scale or from interpolated CMAQ ozone and/or MM5 temperature simulations. A significant innovation of this work has been the "down-scaling" of global climate model outputs to assess regional and urban-scale changes, which are more relevant to local policy-makers. The NYCHP conducted public health impact assessments for the region and for both temperature and ozone, at scales more relevant for adaptive city, county and state planning. Relevant website(s): Sector: WATER Contact Person(s): David C. Major and Cynthia Rosenzweig Summary: The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City's water supply and wastewater treatment systems, created an agency-wide Climate Change Task Force in 2004. The mission is to ensure that NYCDEP's strategic and capital planning efficiently take into account the potential effects of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC's water systems. In addition to its adaptation activities, the NYCDEP is developing a GHG management program, using GHG inventory software to support mitigation efforts. Applications: A comprehensive framework for analyzing climate change has been created, including a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of time-frame (immediate, medium-term, and long-term), the capital cycle, and costs and other impacts. A wide range of potential adaptations has been examined, including integrated operations with other systems, storm surge barriers for wastewater treatment plants, and new design criteria for infrastructure that reflect non-stationary hydrologic processes. Climate change indicators have been identified to help guide the timing of adaptations. Relevant website(s): Sector: URBAN HEAT ISLAND Contact Person(s): Cynthia Rosenzweig and Bill Solecki Summary: This study uses a regional climate model (MM5) in combination with observed meteorological, satellite, and GIS data to determine the impact of urban forestry, living (green) roofs, and light-colored surfaces on near-surface air temperature and the urban heat island in New York City. Nine mitigation scenarios are evaluated city-wide and in six case study areas. Temperature impacts are calculated on a per-unit area basis, as well as taking into account the available land area for implementation, and other physical constraints. The scenarios are then evaluated based on their cost-effectiveness at reducing air temperature and resulting energy demand. Applications: Preliminary findings from this study were incorporated into a Request for Proposals issued by NYSERDA, which is sponsoring an urban tree-planting program for New York City communities in conjunction with DEC. Findings from this study will also be incorporated into an EPA-funded study on an integrated modeling approach to local energy use and environmental planning in Lower Manhattan. Relevant website(s): Sector: GREEN ROOFS Contact Person: Stuart Gaffin and Cynthia Rosenzweig Summary: This multidisciplinary research project investigates the potential of green roofs to address multiple environmental and human health problems in New York City. This project recognizes the needs for downscaling global climate and hydrological models and up-scaling the building-level energy analyses in order to analyze questions related to individual and social functions of ecological infrastructure. The first phase of the study explored the development of green, vegetated rooftops in New York City - a technology that has been implemented in municipalities around the world as a strategy for mitigating such challenges as storm-water runoff pollution and high urban temperatures. To examine the impact of green roofs on the urban heat island effect, satellite images, GIS software, and local meteorological data were used. The following models are developed in this study: energy balance model, hydrology model and cost-benefit model.
Applications: The project quantifies the environmental functions and economic benefits and costs of green roof adoption in New York City. The focus of this project is the benefits of green roofs on the following key impact sectors: energy use and global climate change, the urban heat island effect, and storm-water runoff. A set of greening scenarios are used to determine the effect of greening a single building as well as greening ten percent or fifty percent of the Newtown Creek sewage-shed and New York City. Relevant website(s): |
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