Routine Forecast Products
We provide three complementary forecast products, updated regularly and freely available worldwide:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecast Monthly discussion of El Niño, La Niña, and Southern Oscillation status, with multi-model probabilistic forecasts for the next nine months. Updated on the 19th of each month. → Go to ENSO Forecast
Seasonal Climate Forecast Global probabilistic outlook maps of precipitation and temperature for the next six months. Based on re-calibrated output from NOAA's North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME), expressed in tercile categories (below/near/above normal) and user-selectable thresholds. Updated on the 15th of each month. → Go to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal Climate Forecast Global probabilistic weekly and biweekly maps of precipitation and temperature for the next four weeks. Based on re-calibrated output from three NOAA models (CFSv2, GEFSv12, ESRL FIM HYCOM) from the Subseasonal Consortium Project (SubC), expressed in tercile categories and flexible thresholds. Updated every Friday. → Go to Subseasonal Forecast
Experimental Forecast Products
Multi-model forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole
North American Weather Regimes
Quarterly Briefings
ENSO and Seasonal Climate Forecasts are presented in quarterly briefings, held in-person at CCSR and online via Zoom. Recordings [available on Vimeo]; slide decks [archived at IRI].
Infrastructure and Impact
We've built a comprehensive S2S forecast infrastructure—over 60 terabytes of forecast data freely available to researchers and decision-makers worldwide. This includes multi-model ensemble forecasts, verification datasets, and tools for interpreting forecast skill and uncertainty. The data support applications from agricultural planning to disaster risk reduction across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Our forecasts enable proactive decision-making: humanitarian organizations position relief supplies before disasters strike, farmers adjust planting schedules based on rainfall predictions, water managers optimize reservoir operations, and health systems prepare for heat waves. We work directly with meteorological agencies and extension services to translate forecasts into local decision contexts.
Current research focuses on improving forecast skill for extreme events, understanding sources of predictability, and expanding forecast applications to underserved regions. By advancing the science of subseasonal prediction and making forecasts operationally useful, we're transforming "predictability deserts" into actionable intelligence that protects lives and livelihoods.
Access and Contact
Subscribe to IRI mailing lists for forecast announcements. Contact Dr. M. Azhar Ehsan (ENSO and Seasonal forecasts) or Dr. Andrew Robertson (Subseasonal forecasts) with questions.
